We’re just a couple hours away from kickoff, so I’m going to attack this preview, bullet-point style, so I can get up to Lavelle Edwards Stadium and get ready for what should be a great game.
- Don’t underestimate the importance of this game or the quality of BYU’s oppenent. It seems most BYU fans are expecting an easy victory today. The Seminoles are separated from an 0-2 start by a few last-minute heroics against an FCS opponent. They don’t have the high national ranking or buzz to match their reputation, and they’re playing in Provo, where BYU fans seem to think the Cougars are all but invincible. Don’t be so sure. FSU has a good football team. They have an excellent coaching staff (even ignoring their obviously symbolic head coach). They have depth in terms of athletes, a solid quarterback, and speed across the board. I expect a close game, and definitely not certain victory for the Cougars.
- BYU offense vs. FSU defense: edge to BYU. We won’t run all over Florida State the way we ran over Tulane. Unga should get the bulk of the carries, but Cariya and DiLuigi will both be factors. FSU has had problems defending against the pass. They have the athletes to match up well against our top receivers, but I don’t think they are strong enough in their system to handle the way Max Hall distributes the ball. Don’t expect to see a breakout game for McKay Jacobsen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pitta and George wreak havoc between the linebackers and the secondary. BYU will score 35 points, on the heels of 315 passing yards and 75 yards on the ground.
- BYU defense vs. FSU offense: slight edge to FSU. BYU’s defense has looked great so far this season, but I’m not quite sold that a well-coached team can’t find a way to exploit BYU’s lack of speed and athleticism on defense. If FSU is as well-coached as I think they are, expect to see a lot of short pass plays, screens, and slants. This will protect Ponder from the pass rush and force the BYU secondary to play closer to scrimmage, at which point their receivers will have a better chance to make big plays. The FSU running attack will be secondary today, but the backs will still be active running draw-plays, pass-protecting, and running screens that could really be a problem for BYU. That said, BYU has shown good fundamental open-field tackling so far this season, and if they can find a way to disrupt the short pass and screen game without becoming susceptible to the big play, they could easily bend without breaking. FSU will score 31 points to go with 265 passing yards and 65 on the ground.
- My boldest prediction of the day: BYU’s kickers will not kick a single ball out of bounds, after sending three past the sidelines in their first two games. Instead, they’ll pound the center of the field, taking advantage of the thin air to achieve better hangtime and distance. Florida State will have a long field for most of their drives, in hopes that the Seminoles will prove as careless with the ball as they seemed against Jackson State.
- Players of the game: Max Hall will have his first interception-less game of the season to go with three TD passes. Dennis Pitta will be the first BYU receiver to cross the 100-yard mark in a game this season. Jan Jorgensen will sack Ponder at least once.
- We’ll know BYU’s in trouble if Florida State scores on their first drive, if they’re having success with the short pass, or if they successfully run the ball against the BYU front seven.
- We’ll know BYU’s in good shape if the defense stops FSU from scoring on two of their first three possessions, if Pitta’s finding himself open in the middle of the field, and if the FSU pass-rush has trouble putting pressure on Hall.
I’ll write a brief re-cap later tonight, and something more elaborate come Monday morning. Enjoy the game everybody.
