When I looked up Tulane’s stats over the last several seasons, I was genuinely surprised. BYU’s loss to Tulane in Memphis is still fresh in my mind, as I was at the game, and I just assumed they were always decent, though never spectacular. They’ve actually been pretty awful. It’s been seven years since Tulane’s had a winning record. They’ve lost against such powerhouses as Army (the last two years) and Rice. They’ve lost their last six games against Houston and their last five against Tulsa. It’s been a prolonged period of futility for the Tulane Green Wave. Look for it to continue this afternoon.
Tulane lost to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes last week 37-13. Allowing 37 points to Tulsa isn’t a big deal–they’re known for their explosive offense. Only managing thirteen points against a typically porous defense is more of an issue. They passed for 300+ yards, but only managed 39 rushing yards on 34 attempts, a measly 1.1 yard/carry. Tulsa only threw for 211 yards against them, but completed 75% of their measly 20 pass attempts, as they spent most of their time of possession rushing for more than 200 yards.
BYU Offense vs. Tulane defense:
Tulane’s defense was pretty bad last year, especially against the run, where they gave up the seventh most yards/game in the country, a whopping 218.42 ypg. Against similar defenses last year, BYU’s pass-first offense racked up a solid, though unspectacular 150 rushing ypg. If Unga plays, expect something similar to that; if not, 100 yards on the ground is probably the over/under. Tulane’s pass defense was much better, ranked 14th in the nation giving up 172.83 ypg. BYU played two other highly ranked pass defenses last year: TCU and UCLA. There’s a big difference between those two teams. TCU ranked #1 in rush defense and #11 in pass defense, and BYU passed for 274 yards against them. UCLA was ranked #7 in pass defense, but #89 in rush defense, and Max Hall lit them up for 337 passing yards. To make a long story short, there are two ways to give up few passing yards for a season: actually play good pass defense (TCU), or let teams run all over you so they don’t have to pass (UCLA). Tulane seems more UCLA than TCU. The Green Wave ranked 84th in the nation in total yards allowed and 106th in scoring defense, meaning they must have struggled on either special teams (giving teams short fields to start drives) or red-zone defense. Turns out, it was both, ranking #103 in red-zone defense and #94 in net punting. Big edge for BYU. My prediction: 290 passing yards, 140 rushing yards, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost, 42 points scored.
BYU Defense vs. Tulane Offense
The Cougar defense last year was bad against the run and really bad against the pass. Tulane’s offense was bad at passing, and really bad at rushing. BYU’s defense seems to have improved dramatically. Tulane’s offense does not. Edge to BYU again. My prediction: 240 passing yards, 65 rushing yards, 22 points scored.
That’s right folks. BYU wins 42-22, just barely beating the spread of 18.5 points. Enjoy.
